So it is in conservation and birding. We count birds;
whether to determine population trends over time or simply for competition with
others or ourselves. We count numbers of individuals, breeding pairs, numbers
of species, fledged young, and we do this repeatedly to assess the health or
otherwise of a particular habitat or location, and then to see what happens in
that place over time.
One particular place where this has been happening lately is
the Isles of Scilly. The archipelago is a group of over 100 islands (depending
on the tide) located 28 miles off the tip of Cornwall, with a permanent
population of around 2,200 people. For the last nine years I have been
privileged enough to visit the islands each autumn to lead guided walks for the
RSPB on Tresco, one of the five inhabited islands. The purpose of the visit is
to raise awareness of the work the RSPB are doing on the islands for wildlife,
and success is largely judged on numbers: how many people we meet, how many
walks we do, how much money we raise, how many members we make. But these
numbers don’t tell the whole story here. Other numbers have started to become
more important.Storm clouds off Bryher |
A survey tunnel |
The knock on impact of this work was seen in 2014, when
surveys revealed manx shearwater chicks on St Agnes and Gugh surviving to
fledging – 10 of them in fact. And in 2015 there were 28 of them. This may seem
like small fry, but this is where numbers come in. Not a single manx shearwater
chick had been recorded by anyone on those islands in living memory. None.
That’s zero productivity over perhaps 100 years. And now there are at least 28
chicks leaving the islands for a life at sea. Even better, storm petrel
chicks have been confirmed in 2015 – the first for many years.
A Manx Shearwater chick |
Conservation projects are rarely so successful so quickly,
and we can only assess how well they are performing using data – without a
baseline we would have nothing to compare to, and without rigorous, consistent
survey techniques we would not be able to draw reliable conclusions. The Isles
of Scilly Seabird Recovery Project is a fantastic example of what can be
achieved through partnership working and community support, and of course an excellent
example of how numbers have shown that success. Let’s just hope the surveyors
were not among the five out of every four people who have problems with
fractions.